By Danielle Kutchel and Mitchell Clarke
Residents of La Trobe could be forgiven for thinking the cash splash we’ve seen in recent weeks is out of the ordinary.
But as we dawdle towards the finishing line of what some feel is an uninspiring election campaign, Monash University political scientist Nick Economou says it isn’t all that unusual.
“It happens all the time, it’s a marginal seat and the government needs to hold it,” Mr Economou explained.
“The offers of cash coming from the government are a sign the government is trying to sandbag it, and if Labor offers cash they must feel they can win.
“Both sides have been bombarding us with mind-numbing sets of numbers: new sporting facilities to taxpayer-funded childcare, massive white-elephant railway programs, it just doesn’t end! People say, ‘for years you lectured on fiscal responsibility, now both of you are proposing to spend huge amounts of public money, incomprehensible to ordinary people on the street’.
“The way the campaign is being run tests everybody’s credulity. No wonder everyone’s cynical,” he said.
TAB has Labor at a sure bet in La Trobe, at $1.38 to the Coalition’s $2.80. Similarly, the bookies have backed Labor to win the election comfortably, $1.14 to the Coalition’s $5.75.
If Victoria sees a repeat of November’s state election, which was a wipe-out for the state Liberals, then Mr Economou expects Labor to win La Trobe comfortably this weekend – but politics is rarely so simple.
“Most opinion polls, the national polls, show a swing to Labor of 1.5 to 2 percentage points, which wouldn’t be enough for Labor to win La Trobe. So for Labor to win, there has to be a regional, local swing greater than the national swing.”
Mr Economou described this weekend’s contest as a “government-changing election”, where voters simply move from one party to the next.
“Independents are opportunistic and think they’ll pick up anti-major party sentiment – but I don’t think that’s going to happen, I think it will be a straightforward swing from Liberal to Labor.”
Meanwhile, Russell Broadbent appears to be putting much of the emphasis of his campaign in the seat of Monash on his role as a local member, rather than a party representative, according to Mr Economou.
“They’re trying to resurrect an old-fashioned notion that they’re good local members and you shouldn’t take your frustrations with the Liberal Party out on them,” he said, “but it’s a dangerous tactic to employ, because most people identify with parties, not individuals.”
Regardless, he believes the demographics of Monash mean Jason Wood has more to be concerned about than Mr Broadbent.
Nearby electorates Holt and Bruce are “safe as houses” for their current members, Mr Economou added.
Elsewhere, questions have been raised about the way in which the money has been promised, with the Liberal Party dogged by claims that they have given money to local clubs and organisations but warned them not to spend it yet.
“It’s a bad look, it’s indicative of a campaign lacking organisation and discipline. Presumably, you shouldn’t be making offers to people if you can’t deliver on them,” Mr Economou said.
“Let’s not forget, constitutionally, sport clubs aren’t even a Federal responsibility.”
Labor MP for Latrobe Simon Curtis claims that Jason Wood is simply splashing cash to get everyone on side.
“On the eve of an election, Jason wants to buy the votes of local residents. People can see through the novelty cheques and know that it is just cynical a ploy to save his job,” Mr Curtis said.
“People know Jason’s record of voting for cuts to schools, hospitals and pensions. They know he voted against a banking royal commission and hasn’t done anywhere near enough to address problems with our local road infrastructure.
“Labor has committed to investing in local infrastructure, funding our schools and hospitals, and delivering the services our community needs.”
Jason Wood fired back in response to an article by the Guardian earlier this year which suggested he was handing out novelty cheques, including one to Berwick Senior Football Netball Club.
“Funding for the Berwick Senior Football Netball Club redevelopment is in the Budget and ready to be expended,” Mr Wood said.“The Deputy Prime Minister’s letter confirmed the funding and outlined the Community Development Grants Programme guidelines.
“It is not unusual for proponents and local MPs to make an announcement ahead of the finalisation of the funding agreement and initial works commencing.”
