By DAVID NAGEL
CASEY CARDINIA FOOTBALL NETBALL LEAGUE
ELIMINATION FINAL PREVIEW – Sunday at ROC
CAN Pakenham rebound from two wasted opportunities or will a rejuvenated Berwick run riot when the Lions and Wickers meet in a battle for survival in Sunday’s elimination final at Starling Road?
The Lions have had a tough finish to their season, handing up a coveted double chance with losses to Cranbourne and Beaconsfield over the last fortnight, while the Wickers have feasted on inferior opposition. How that translates into battle on the weekend is something that both coaches can’t wait to find out.
“We were good on the weekend,” Berwick coach Rhys Nisbet said of his sides’ trouncing of Doveton.
“The confidence from earlier in the season was back and we played with flair and, most importantly, we gave four-quarters of effort.
“We’re playing a good side this week, but we know our best footy is good enough, we just need to bring that effort from last week into this week’s game.”
Pakenham coach Steve O’Bryan was coming from a completely different foothold.
“We’ve got to be positive because we’ve still got next week,” he said after last week’s loss to Beaconsfield.
“We have to get over it pretty quickly because the same thing will happen if we harp on things too much.
“I think we’ve definitely improved from last year but we need to come out and show it where it counts.
“If we don’t finish higher than last year (fourth), it doesn’t matter what I think, it means we haven’t improved.”
The loss of Dom Paynter to a serious knee injury will really hurt the Lions this week, not only was he unstoppable against the Wickers in Round 11, but Berwick last week regained the services of its very own speedster in Tom Brennan. This time around, when the ball bounces on centre wing, Brennan won’t have the burden of worrying about Paynter, it might free him up to cause some real carnage on Sunday.
Pakenham’s defence, in particular Nathan Brown, was superb against Beaconsfield last week, but that ability to peel off and play the third man up is not so easy against the Wickers. Unlike the Eagles, they have targets that command respect, with Jordy Andrews, Mitch Johnson, Michael Manley and Tim Gunn all capable of spreading to different parts to create their own danger.
Jordy and Johnson may sound like a Band-Aid brand, but their recent ability to work in tandem could open up some deep wounds in the Lions’ defence. Throw in the possible inclusion of Nathan Waite from an eye injury, and it means Brown, Steve Morey, Jarrod Theisz and Jason Fisher might really have their hands full on the weekend.
Pakenham’s midfield is elite, with Russ Lehman impossible to stop at times, while Dean Blake, Cory Lenders, Anthony Young and O’Bryan can move the ball beautifully when allowed.
It will be interesting to see what Nisbet does with Lehman, and O’Bryan with Berwick skipper Madi Andrews, they’re the two key midfielders on the park and will require some close observation.
Pakenham does rely on its midfield brigade to kick goals, Lehman loves a ‘sausage roll’, while ruckman Kym Jones and O’Bryan take it in turns to slip forward to become dangerous targets when needed. The return of Daniel Fry from Garfield has been the biggest positive for the Lions’ front end this season, not only has he contributed 48 goals, but he has provided real protection, giving youngsters Troy Toussaint and Jake Barclay the confidence to shine.
Toussaint has always had a touch of class, and is a quality finisher, but his ability to now grab a piece of the pie in the air has added something special to his play.
So how do we read the form?
Berwick has won three of its last four, but hasn’t beaten a finals contender since putting the cat amongst the pigeons with a huge win over Cranbourne in Round 4, while the Lions have lost their last two, against quality opposition mind you, but confidence can play such a huge part in these games.
THE TIP
Berwick will be up and about after a strong finish to the season while the Lions face their biggest mental challenge, at the biggest time of year, and will be desperate to progress. The corresponding clash last year ended not only with a 68-point win to the Lions, but also in controversy and the Wickers will be keen to make amends.
This difference in this game will be the absolute will to win of O’Bryan, an inspirational leader who craves respect and goes about earning it the right way.
It’s the Lions by three points.
